SOARING DISPARITIES: The opposition won the first round of votes, tapping into public discontent as surging inflation shrinks incomes, pensions and social benefits

Bloomberg

Lithuania’s Social Democratic Party on Sunday won it first parliamentary elections in 12 years as voters turned to the opposition to address soaring disparities in the Baltic nation.

Social Democrats received 19.4 percent of the vote, putting the party in pole position to form the next government, with the ruling conservatives from the Homeland Union a close second at 18 percent, the final results showed.

The first round of voting showed the opposition has successfully tapped into rising discontent among the voters living outside relatively affluent cities like the capital, Vilnius, who have seen their incomes, pensions and social benefits eroded by a period of double-digit inflation.

Social Democratic Party leader Vilija Blinkeviciute speaks to the media after the first round of Lithuanian parliamentary elections in Vilnius on Sunday.

Photo: Reuters

Income inequality in Lithuania, a country of 2.8 million wedged between Belarus and the Baltic Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, is the second-highest in the EU.

The anti-establishment mood has fueled the rise of an upstart party, the Dawn of Nemunas, whose leader is on trial for making anti-Semitic remarks in his criticism of Israel’s war in Gaza. The party came in third with 15 percent of the vote.

The Social Democrats have pledged to keep the Dawn of Nemunas under Remigijus Zemaitaitis out of potential coalition talks. However, his party might still emerge as a kingmaker, further complicating the Social Democrats’ task as it cobbles together a majority in a fragmented parliament. A total of six parties entered the legislature.

A return to power for the Social Democrats could see Vilija Blinkeviciute, a former social affairs minister, become the prime minister. Currently a lawmaker in the European Parliament, the 64-year-old is credited with raising pensions during her stint in government from 2000 to 2008.

Blinkeviciute said she sees her party building a ruling majority with two other center-left leaning partners of Union of Democrats “For Lithuania” and Lithuania’s Farmers and Greens.

Still, the plans might be complicated by personal animosity between the leaders of the two junior parties that vowed not to work together ahead of the election.

The shift in the political landscape should become clearer after Lithuanians return to choose the remaining half of the country’s legislators in a second round of elections on Oct. 27.

“We still have serious work to do in the second round and we hope for a truly good result,” Blinkeviciute said yesterday. “We hope that after consolidating results in the second round it will be enough to form a coalition of three parties.”

The change of guard is unlikely to affect Lithuania’s position as one of the most vocal critics of Russia’s war in Ukraine. Parties generally agree that the country needs to increase defense spending, currently at 3.2 percent of economic output, to prevent Moscow from potentially challenging NATO borders.

Conflicting demands might leave the next government with some hard fiscal choices. Low pensions and limited coverage of social benefits have driven up poverty and income inequality, the European Commission said in a June report.

The Social Democrats in power could also strengthen Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda, who was elected for a second term earlier this year and has had frosty relations with the Homeland Union leader, Lithuanian Minister of Foreign Affairs Gabrielius Landsbergis.